WHY NODULES? // DATA BRIEF
Polymetallic nodules on the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) seafloor contain the four metals most critical to the energy transition — nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper — in a single rock. The Metals Company (TMC) holds exploration concessions across three CCZ contract areas via partnerships with Nauru, Tonga, and Kiribati. Below are three themes that underpin the bull case, presented factually.
Mineral Independence
Reducing reliance on foreign supply chainsThe Problem
The U.S. imports the majority of its nickel, cobalt, and manganese. China controls over 60% of global cobalt refining and ~35% of nickel refining capacity. This concentration creates supply-chain fragility for EV batteries, defence systems, and grid storage.
The Nodule Answer
A single CCZ nodule contains all four metals. TMC estimates its contract areas hold approximately 1.6 billion tonnes of wet nodules — one of the largest undeveloped multi-metal deposits on the planet. Harvesting these nodules on the U.S. continental shelf pathway would reduce dependence on geopolitically concentrated sources.
Policy Tailwind
An Executive Order signed in April 2025 directed federal agencies to accelerate U.S. leadership in seabed mineral exploration. This explicitly prioritised critical-mineral supply-chain security and tasked NOAA with streamlining permit reviews.
Regulatory Pivot: ISA → NOAA
A faster path to permits under U.S. jurisdictionISA Gridlock
The International Seabed Authority (ISA) has been negotiating the deep-sea Mining Code for over a decade. As of mid-2025, no finalised framework exists. Thirty-seven nations have called for a precautionary pause or outright moratorium, further slowing progress.
The NOAA Path
The U.S. is not party to UNCLOS, the treaty under which the ISA operates. Instead, the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA) gives NOAA jurisdiction over U.S.-flagged deep-sea mining. A new NOAA rule, effective January 2026, introduced a consolidated application process — merging exploration licences and commercial recovery permits into a single filing.
TMC's First-Mover Filing
TMC USA submitted the first consolidated application to NOAA for CCZ polymetallic nodules, seeking to expand its proposed commercial recovery area. This sidesteps ISA timeline uncertainty entirely and places the permitting process under a single, defined U.S. regulator.
Nodule Economics
Why the unit economics favour deep-sea collectionWhy Collection Is Cheap
Unlike terrestrial mines that require blasting, drilling, and tunnelling, polymetallic nodules sit loose on the seafloor at ~4,000–6,000 m depth. Collection is essentially hydraulic vacuuming — dramatically lower capital intensity compared to hard-rock mining. There are no overburden removal costs, no tailings dams, and no acid-rock drainage management.
Multi-Metal Revenue Streams
Each nodule contains nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper simultaneously. A traditional nickel mine produces primarily one metal; a nodule operation produces four. This means a single collection campaign generates four separate revenue streams from the same ore.
Price-Fluctuation Insulation
Because revenue is diversified across four metals, a price drop in any single commodity is partially offset by the others. If nickel drops 20% but cobalt and manganese hold steady, the operation still generates robust returns. This built-in diversification de-risks the commodity exposure relative to single-metal mines.
Valuation & Capital
TMC's own economic studies estimate a combined Net Present Value of $23.6 billion across its nodule assets, with the NORI-D project alone at >$8 billion NPV. Commercial production from NORI-D is targeted for Q4 2027. Korea Zinc made an $85.2 million strategic equity investment in June 2025, bringing TMC's cash balance to ~$115.8 million — sufficient liquidity for at least twelve months of operations. Analyst consensus suggests significant upside from current trading levels.
Nodule Metal Composition
| Metal | Nodule Grade (%) | Primary Use | Supply Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manganese | ~27–30% | Steel, batteries | High |
| Nickel | ~1.2–1.4% | EV batteries, stainless | Moderate |
| Copper | ~1.0–1.2% | Wiring, motors | Moderate |
| Cobalt | ~0.15–0.25% | Battery cathodes | Critical |